The race to replace former attorney-general Robert McClelland in the southern Sydney seat of Barton will hinge on which candidate locks in the support of Australia's largest Shiite mosque at Arncliffe.
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Union-backed candidates Steve McMahon, former mayor of Hurstville, and Shane O'Brien, the mayor of Rockdale, are expected to receive the most votes when Labor Party branch members vote on Saturday.
ALP sources said Mr McMahon, who won the blessing of Morris Iemma after the former NSW premier decided not to contest in Barton, has firmed as the favourite to win preselection.
Kirsten Andrews, a former Labor worker backed by her former boss, Environment Minister Tony Burke, remains in contention. The 20 per cent loading she will receive as a female candidate and a preference swap deal she has struck with Mr McMahon means she could still prevail in the ballot of 272 votes.
Candidates and branch members said a bloc of 70 votes associated with NSW upper-house MP Shaoquett Moselmane and the Lebanese Muslim community were the key to winning Barton.
Mr Moselmane's first cousin Sheikh Kamal Mousselmani presides over the Al-Zahra mosque at Arncliffe. His brother Kamel Mousselmani is an ALP preselector.
The group has been pushing for a youth centre to be built at Arncliffe Park, something the then premier Kristina Keneally promised if Labor was returned in 2011, and Rockdale City Council has considered adding it to its capital works agenda.
Candidates have been asked to explain their support for a youth centre and what they could do from a federal level. There has been speculation the mosque wanted a Muslim-only youth centre but Sheikh Mousselmani said it would be for the entire community.
He once courted controversy for his public support for the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah in 2007 but has since been a key voice for unity. Most recently, he condemned the Martin Place violent protests last September.
Mr Moselmane said he would support Mr McMahon.
Whoever wins preselection faces a battle to win Barton, which has been held by Mr McClelland since 1996. Labor holds the seat with a margin of 8.9 per cent.
A party source said Prime Minister Julia Gillard's popularity problem was even more pronounced among the large overseas-born contingent in Barton.
''They won't vote for her,'' the source said.
''That might also be a problem for Kirsten Andrews.''
It is believed Mr Burke wants Ms Andrews in Parliament to work the numbers for any future leadership aspirations.
Mayor of Kogarah Nickolas Varvaris will contest Barton for the Liberal Party.
