Healthy year-on-year viewership figures and a spike in grand final television and digital media ratings have the AFL well positioned for the start of official negotiations over what is shaping as a record broadcast rights contract.
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The current five-year, $1.25 billion agreement does not expire until the end of the 2016 season, but the AFL has repeatedly stated it is keen to complete a new agreement by the end of 2015. Discussions are set to open within weeks after league chief Gillon McLachlan returns from a short post-season break.
Current rights holders Seven West Media, through Channel Seven, Foxtel and Telstra, will again be part of discussions, although there may yet be a twist with Foxtel should the pay TV network become a part-owner of Channel Ten. The Australian Financial Review has reported that private-equity firm Providence Equity Partners and Foxtel have "kicked the tyres" of Ten.
Ten chief executive Hamish McLennan told Fairfax Media in April his network would be interested in regaining a slice of the AFL rights it lost in 2011 depending on what was on offer. Ten believes it needs a major winter sport to compete with Nine, which has the NRL, and Seven.
It's believed the AFL would prefer two free-to-air rights holders and Foxtel share the broadcast rights, for this would help push the overall deal closer to $3 billion in what McLachlan has already flagged could be a 10-year deal.
Nine Entertainment is also set to receive tender documents, with industry sources suggesting it will have strong interest now it has ownership of the Nine networks in Adelaide and Perth – two of the AFL's strongest markets.
In a message to AFL supporters on Monday, and indirectly to media companies, McLachlan pointed out the strong broadcast ratings.
The AFL said the TV audience "achieved for the showpiece game of the season was 3.72 million people, with total reach across Australia estimated to be 6.244 million viewers – up on the 2013 grand final ratings".
Media analyst Fusion Strategy said the grand final audience was up almost 3 per cent on last year. Although Fusion said the finals series as a whole was down 3 per cent and had failed to "crack the magical 10 million live metropolitan viewer mark", the figures were still "strong".
In McLachlan's statement, the AFL said it had enjoyed "strong year-on-year TV ratings".
Fox Footy has said audiences for its live matches this season had grown by 2 per cent. However, the cumulative free-to-air television audience has reportedly fallen by 1.2 per cent.
McLachlan added: "AFL fans also engaged with the game in record numbers on digital media as the swing to mobile and tablet devices gathers pace. The 2014 AFL grand final saw the AFL's digital network record more than 1.3 million visitors, up more than 40 per cent from the 2013 grand final."
The digital rights are set to reap the league a windfall. McLachlan has spoken about the league televising matches on its own website, although it could be more commercially profitable to have a Telstra, Google or YouTube involved. Apple TV is reportedly another option. The free-to-air broadcasters could also bid to secure a share of the online rights.
Kim Williams, the former Foxtel chief who helped broker the most recent broadcast rights deal, is now an AFL commissioner and has a strong understanding of the importance of digital media.
The certainty that would come from completing a broadcast rights agreement next year would allow the AFL to purchase Etihad Stadium, rather than having to wait until 2025, when it will automatically take possession for $30.
