The AFL is budgeting for a small crowd befitting the respective positions of the two sides that will clash in Wellington on Saturday.

The league is expecting an attendance of between 12,000 and 13,000 when St Kilda face Carlton in a new afternoon timeslot, which Westpac Stadium chief executive Shane Harmon hopes will help boost the crowd for the venue's annual AFL game. However Harmon acknowledges the challenge of attracting a crowd in a "frontier market", one he believes is similar to that of western Sydney.

The current form of both the Saints and the Blues hardly makes for a marquee match-up in any city, but stadium chief Shane Harmon knows that even a game of top teams can be a difficult sell in rugby territory.

Harmon is well qualified to make the comparison. The Irishman is no stranger to the AFL, having been Sydney Swans membership manager between 2000 and 2002. He has also served as marketing manager for the Wallabies, was a key figure in the marketing of teams for rugby World Cups on both sides of the Tasman, and held a senior role on the organising committee for the 2015 Asian Cup.

"This is very much a frontier market. Probably the analogy you would use is western Sydney," Harmon said on Monday.

In a city renowned for its antisocial weather, Harmon knows that conditions will play a crucial role in determining how many people turn up to the game. Just 13,409 attended last year's St Kilda-Brisbane Lions game on Anzac Day, which was marred by wet conditions. It was a significant drop from the inaugural game played on international soil for premiership points in 2013, when 22,546 saw Sydney defeat a plucky St Kilda side.

Harmon confirmed that the late-purchasing event culture of the city means that it is difficult to estimate an attendance. "Typically in Wellington we see the bulk of our tickets sold in the week of the event. Hopefully with some good weather ahead we will see a large walk-up crowd on the day. The city have done a really good job in terms of integrating the fixture into the Anzac Day commemorations."

The closeness of the Easter and Anzac Day public holidays was another factor which authorities blamed for the diminished turnout last year.

A St Kilda spokesman said that around 2000 Australians were heading to Wellington for the game, with a further 1000 Kiwis from elsewhere in New Zealand set to descend on the capital.

The combination of the recently completed Cricket World Cup, as well as the strong seasons of Super Rugby's Wellington Hurricanes and the A-League's Wellington Phoenix have made it difficult for the Saints to attract publicity in the lead-up to the match, however according to Harmon, the strong backing of Carlton coach Mick Malthouse - who will on Saturday equal Jock McHale's record of 714 VFL/AFL games coached - has helped gain attention.

"Having Mick Malthouse involved, certainly there's been a lot of media coverage this week. He's been very supportive of the game, and it'll certainly be an honour for us to host Carlton here along with St Kilda."

2015 is the first time the Wellington game has been played as an afternoon match. It will make it the first AFL game to start in the morning on the Eastern seaboard of Australia since North Melbourne met Port Adelaide in the first ever game at Manuka Oval in 1998. "In a new market for a game that's essentially three hours from start to finish, to give ourselves the best chance of success we all agreed that we would trial a 1 o'clock start this year and we hoped that would have a big impact."

The Saints are at the midway point of a five-year deal to play a home game in Wellington on Anzac Day.