Australia's predicted performance at next year's Rio Olympics has officially been revised down from the lofty top-five target initially set by the Australian Sports Commission when it overhauled how the nation governs sport.
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The latest forecasts – that top five on the overall medal table is "aspirational" though not impossible, and that Australia could rank as low as 11th in Brazil – features in an annual report card the ASC will publish on Tuesday.
The 44-page "Sports Tally 2015, Australia's Winning Edge" document, containing a state-of-the-nation introduction from Australian Institute of Sport director Matt Favier, was circulated on Monday.
Favier has told Fairfax Media: "At this stage it remains less likely today that we will achieve a top five [finish] in Rio, but I'd probably still add a qualification to that – it does remain possible – but at this stage it appears less likely".
A rise from seventh position on the overall medal ladder would be an improvement on London in 2012, where Australia was 10th on the gold medal ladder with seven. If any jump is achieved, the AIS and ASC say, it would be significant given Australia's Olympic performance has regressed at every Olympics since the 2000 Sydney Games.
Improving on the haul from London is the result the 2015 Sports Tally suggests is most likely, though the document hedges its bets with Favier stating in the document's preamble: "The only certainty is that the competition in Rio will be extraordinarily tough".
A former elite track and field athlete intimately involved in designing "Winning Edge" after a successful stint working in the British Olympic system, Favier stressed to Fairfax Media that the somewhat controversial strategy is a 10-year plan.
"When we talked about Australia achieving a top-five performance at Summer Games, we always recognised that to do that by Rio, whilst we felt it was possible, we always felt it would be a challenge for us to get there," he said.
While Australia achieved the Australian Olympic Committee's benchmark of 35 medals in London, the AOC expected more of those medals would be gold. Australia won seven gold after winning 14 in Beijing in 2008 and 17 in Athens in 2004. From a medals perspective, London marked the country's worst performance since Barcelona in 1992.
The top-five aim for Olympics and Paralympics, and the ambition that Australia would be the top Commonwealth Games nation, was set by the ASC when it radically overhauled how government funds were allocated in sport with the launch of the "Winning Edge" strategy three years ago.
The cold reality of Australia losing the No.1 mantle at last year's Commonwealth Games in Glasgow – this had not occurred since a third placing in 1986 – has led to reassessment, which now sees the ASC and AIS tipping a top-10 ranking but not ruling out the prospect of Australia dropping to 11th on the medal ladder.
The document predicts the countries that will make up the top 10 at the Rio Games – finishing behind the United States, China and Russia – will come from Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia. The latest Rio predictions by the independent website, which collates international results and makes Olympic results forecasts, ranked Australia sixth on the overall virtual medal table behind the US (first), China, Russia, France and Germany.
