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Well, not so fast. The surprises will be in what the government doesn't do, but first a recap of what it will, gleaned from reports so far.

Setting aside the childcare package, the big-ticket items are around pensions, small business and subsidising seniors to work longer.

There'll be a two-tiered company tax rate of 28.5 per cent for "small" (I suspect tiny)  businesses and 30 per cent for bigger ones which at least keeps the level of the dividend franking credit safe, for now anyway. Start-ups will be able to claim depreciation allowances upfront rather than spread the cost over five years.

Offshore content providers such as Netflix will have to pay GST for the first time. Interestingly, GST is one tax Apple has been happy to pay.

There'll also be the usual hits to the PBS, even a crackdown on unnecessary prescriptions for Panadol, another reason I guess for being spared a headache on Tuesday night.

On top of the $10,000 paid to employers to hire seniors, a pointless exercise if it's just displacing a younger employee, there'll be a bonus to the pension later if you can trust this or a future government to keep its word.

Speaking of which, the assets test threshold for home owners will be slashed almost 30 per cent to $823,000 for couples and $547,000 for singles, though not until January 2017. The value of assets that renters can hold will be decreased by about 20 per cent.

But in a moment of fiscal weakness the government is helping poorer pensioners this time: the threshold for a full pension rises 31 per cent to $375,000 for couples and 24 per cent to $250,000 for singles.

Better still, couples who are renting can hold assets up to $575,000 – a 33 per cent increase. Oops sorry, you'll have to wait until 2017 like everybody else.

The taper test, the trade-off between earning income and getting the pension, will revert to $1.50 though everybody will keep their concession card.

Oh, and indexation will be restored to what it was, not that it had ever changed.

But a sting in the budget will be the new tax on bank deposits. Can you imagine worse timing?

Deposit rates on which retirees depend are at historic lows to begin with, so the least the government could do would be temporarily reduce the minimum drawdown rates from allocated pensions, as Wayne Swan did.

The one thing we don't know about the budget will be the deficit, except for being bigger. Does it matter?

Yes, but not yet. As the chart compiled by Deloitte Access Economics of previous budgets shows, the state of the economy dwarfs anything that Treasurers do – or more pointedly – don't.

You can see how the booming economy, thanks to China, made balancing the budget a cinch for Peter Costello and Wayne Swan's first year. All they had to do, in that immortal Woody Allen line, was just show up.

But the rot started to set in four years ago, even though few noticed at the time.

Yes, a budget deficit stimulates the economy by adding more spending, but it works the other way too. A pick-up in the economy shrinks the deficit without the Treasurer having to lift a finger, but it will take a boom that nobody is forecasting to get back to the long-lost surplus.

So blaming Joe Hockey for scrimping and saving would hardly be fair, but then when did that stop him?

@moneypotts