1st - Sydney Roosters (38 points, +261 points difference)

If they win .... A win against the Rabbitohs - who are still recovering from their hammering at the hands of Brisbane last week - will assure the Roosters of a third consecutive minor premiership and a likely clash against the Sharks first-up.

If they lose ... They will still win the minor premiership if Brisbane lose. Otherwise, they face a first week game against the Cowboys.

2nd - Brisbane Broncos (38 points, +202 points difference)

If they win ... There's no shortage of quality teams running into each other this round as Brisbane take on a hot Melbourne Storm outfit. Unless the Broncos can make inroads on a 59-point differential, they'll snag second spot.

If they lose ... Brisbane will stay in second unless they get thumped by 50 points and the Cowboys win by the same margin.

3rd - North Queensland Cowboys (36 points, +103 points difference)

If they win ... Coming off a loss North Queensland will be desperate to pummel the Titans and get their confidence back heading into the finals. It would be a miracle for them to leapfrog the Broncos into second, but it'll matter little with an all-Queensland game on the cards.

If they lose ... The Cowboys will stay in third, but if the Roosters lose and Brisbane claim the minor premiership, it means they'll have to make the trip to Sydney; something they'll be less fazed about than in previous years after winning nine from 12 away from Townsville this season.

4th - Cronulla Sharks (32 points, -5 points difference)

If they win ... Shane Flanagan's men cannot finish any higher than fourth and look set to tackle the Roosters at either Allianz or ANZ Stadium in week one.

If they lose ... Hypothetically, if the Sharks get beaten by Manly, they could finish as low as seventh. If the Storm, Bulldogs and Rabbitohs all win, there will be four teams that will finish on 32 points and the Sharks have the worst for-and-against.  In short, a loss means Cronulla will almost certainly not have a second bite at the cherry in week one, because fifth place can be knocked out in the first week in the updated finals system.

5th - Melbourne Storm (30 points, +112 points difference)

If they win ...  If Melbourne win and Cronulla lose, Craig Bellamy's men will sneak into the top four and probably play the Roosters.  Either way, a win against Brisbane will guarantee, at a minimum, fifth spot.

If they lose ...  And Canterbury and South Sydney win, seventh will have to do for Melbourne.  It's likely, however, one of those teams will stumble a week before the finals, so sixth is a fairly likely outcome for the Storm.

6th - Canterbury Bulldogs (30 points, +38 points difference)

If they win ... A win at home against the Warriors (11th) could put the Bulldogs as high as fourth (if Sharks and Melbourne lose). If South Sydney can win by 11 points more than what Canterbury do, and Cronulla and Melbourne also win, Des Hasler's team face the bizarre prospect of slipping a spot on the ladder, but that is a very unlikely outcome.

If they lose ... Canterbury could stoop as low as seventh, or remain in sixth if the Rabbitohs get done against minor premiership favourites the Roosters.

7th - South Sydney Rabbitohs (30 points, +28 points difference)

If they win ... A 35-point loss against Brisbane last week would not give punters much confidence that South Sydney can beat the Roosters this week, but if they manage to do so, they could, mathematically, finish as high as fourth.  Sixth or seventh is more realistic.

If they lose ... They will finish seventh and will play either the Storm or Bulldogs in week one.

8th - St George Illawarra Dragons (26 points, +25 points difference) 

If they win ... Wests Tigers should give the Dragons an honest hit-up before they play in the finals, more likely than not against Melbourne or Cronulla.  A win will guarantee their spot in the finals.

If they lose ... Manly have to make up 61 points on the Dragons, so provided they don't lose by 30 points and the Sea Eagles win by less than 32 (hypothetically speaking), they'll be OK.  Stranger things have happened.

9th - Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (24 points, -36 points difference)

If they win ... With 10 wins from 23 games, it's hard for Manly to argue they should be playing finals football, but statistically they can still do the unthinkable.

As we said, St George need to lose on Saturday, meaning Manly will know either way before their game on Sunday against Cronulla if they are a chance of making the eight.