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First semi-final
Sydney vs North Melbourne
Saturday, ANZ Stadium, 7.20pm
Selection Table
Injury continues to chisel away at the Swans' premiership hopes. Sam Reid is the latest casualty, going down against Fremantle with another hamstring issue that coach John Longmire admitted "looked like a bad one". Longmire also categorically ruled out Lance Franklin because of his mental condition. All of which means the Swans' biggest strength going into September — multiple key forward targets — has turned into a weakness they have to cover, with only Kurt Tippett remaining to hold up the forward line. The Swans had to use Dean Towers as a mobile centre half forward on Saturday and the youngster stepped up with big work-rate and intensity. Can he back that up next week? Adam Goodes is another option, of course, but he played as a midfielder against the Dockers to help fill the void left by Luke Parker and Kieren Jack. The Swans had planned for Isaac Heeney to fill this void but he copped a knock on the shin early and stayed forward. The one positive for the Swans is the expected return of Nick Smith. The former All-Australian defender injured his hamstring against St Kilda in round 22, but Longmire rated him a "big chance" for this match. For the Roos, small forward Lindsay Thomas was reported for kicking, so they will await the match review panel's verdict on that, as well as the injury fall-out — if any — from Sunday's elimination final win.
2015 Meetings
Round 11: Sydney 14.7 (91) defeated North Melbourne 10.15 (75) by 16 points at Etihad Stadium.
Lance Franklin kicked four goals — flying in and out of the match — and Luke Parker was one of the Swans' best in a victory coming in the period where Roos coach Brad Scott was not at the helm. Caretaker coach Darren Crocker said the Roos "shot themselves in the foot" in a game where his team won the clearances (+16), contested possessions (+6) and had more scoring shots but conceded crucial goals from turnovers.
Who wins and why
The Roos have a massive opportunity to advance to a preliminary final against a depleted Sydney team. There was a narrative floated on Sunday that the Roos would be playing with "house money", given they weren't expected to advance past the Tigers. They were running on top of the ground in the elimination final after the decision to refresh a group of key players in round 23 was vindicated and the Swans are missing four of their best players – Franklin, Jack, Parker and Reid. It's not completely accurate, for the Roos will feel this is a chance at redemption for last year's embarrassing preliminary final defeat to the Swans, but you can understand the sentiment. If they were to win this, North's season would have to be classed as a success. The Swans were so brave against Fremantle, so brave, but it is a big ask to reproduce that same level of tackling pressure (they had 83 tackles for the match) that could have so easily beaten the Dockers. That kind of backs-against-the-wall performance can sometimes be a one-time only thing, particularly when you don't get the ultimate reward, although they have a day's extra break in their favour. If that is the case, North seem to have more momentum behind them, and their key forward triple threat of Drew Petrie, Jarrad Waite and Ben Brown looms large against a Sydney defence that is more vulnerable that it once was.
North Melbourne by 6 points