Smith's revision of the 2017 target comes as NSW Sports Minister Stuart Ayres declared the survival of up to two Sydney clubs would be in jeopardy if the government did not commit to a new 35,000-seat stadium at Parramatta, increasing the capacity of Allianz Stadium to 55,000 and upgrading ANZ Stadium within the next 10 years.

"My strong view is that suburban grounds, particularly in rugby league's case, will probably kill one or maybe even two franchises if we don't make the transition to a larger network [of stadiums]," Ayres said at a Sydney FC in Business function on the eve of the A-League season.

The NRL had set the goal of averaging crowds of 20,000 for premiership matches in a five-year strategic plan released soon after Smith started in the job in 2013, but he told Fairfax Media on Thursday that attendances were proving difficult to increase due to the poor facilities at suburban grounds.

While the NRL attracted record overall crowds for this year's State of Origin and the recent finals series, attendances at club matches fell for a fourth consecutive season to 15,074 – down from 15,905 last year, 15,940 in 2013 and 16,423 in 2012, which was the second highest average crowd figure in the game's history after 2005 (16,468).

"The truth is that crowds have been roughly the same for two decades," Smith said. "In part that is because we haven't grown the base ... in part it is because our infrastructure is just not up to it.

"If you are trying to grow your crowds, the suburban stadiums just don't work. They bring the hard-core fans but they haven't got the transport infrastructure and they are not an experience that necessary is attractive to the softer fans, so until the stadium strategy really pulls through then it is quite difficult to substantially change the numbers and history tells us that."

Asked if the NRL would meet the strategic plan forecast by 2017, Smith said: "I don't think the government can build the stadiums quick enough."

In the meantime, the NRL will continue to focus on increasing club memberships, which have risen by 50 per cent to more than 300,000 since the start of last year when they topped 200,000 for the first time.

"We have never had people make that level of commitment before," Smith said.

"Our members are staying with us longer and there is more of them. In part that is because we are growing the base. We are more inclusive, there are more women and girls."

However, Ayres said female fans were not going to games in large numbers because of the outdated facilities at many venues in Sydney.

"One of the biggest reasons that crowds, whether it be in football or NRL, have dropped off is because the product we offer the customer is pretty crap," Ayres said. "It's the athlete that's still bringing people through the gate, it's not the experience at the ground.

"Ask your wife or girlfriend what it's like going to a stadium in Sydney at the moment, how long you've got to wait to get into the bathroom, how long you've got to wait to get through the food aisle, what's the quality of the food? After you weigh up all those questions, it's so much easier to stay at home than take your family out."

Last Sunday's epic grand final, which is being replayed on a constant rotation in the foyer of League Central, was the second highest rating television program of the year so far – behind Origin II and ahead of Origin I.

The figures give Smith confidence the NRL will secure an overall broadcast rights figure to rival the $2.508 billion, six-year deal announced by AFL, despite upsetting News Corp by selling four free-to-air matches to Channel Nine for $925 million in a deal that will see Fox Sports lose the Saturday night match and the end of Monday night football from 2018.

"We envisaged that negotiations would take some time and they will but in no way are we unhappy with the value of our rights and the proposition that is before us," Smith said.

"It has been a special season and there has been for me a mix of the big strategic things we are doing combined with a really successful 2015 season. You can see the progress and I think it is that progress, and the way the game is going, that makes you feel good about the way we have ended this year.

"We will have about 3.7 million people come to a game this year and over 100 million people watching. So long as people watch our game, so long as we have got the right infrastructure and we are creating the right experience in our stadiums ... I think we will be successful and continue to grow.

"Stadiums is one dimension that I think has been historically under-invested in and we have changed that and we are changing that across all of our markets, which means when you look forward the next 10 or 20 years, you won't see average crowds of 16,000, which is what we have seen for the last 20 years – you will see that grow and people want to be part of the live experience as well as all the other channels that people watch the game grow as well.

"That is what we should be aiming for, not one or the other but a balance across them all. What we know is that 10 years down the track the network of stadiums that we will have in Sydney will mean that the experience our fans get will be dramatically different to what they currently get.

"That is wonderful because that is creating a real legacy for this game and setting it up so that everything is fan first because the stadiums you build today always have the fans in mind."

With Sebastian Hassett