Heading into round seven, an argument could be made that four of the AFL's traditional power clubs were further away from a premiership than in many a season.

Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond and Essendon had collectively six wins, and occupied four of the bottom six rungs on the ladder. Ouch.

The underperforming Pies, as one club scout said, have an "even list", the Blues are rebuilding from ground zero, the Bombers are decimated by anti-doping suspensions but seem intent on having all players return in a questionable policy, while the Tigers appear likely to have to take a step or three back before they can truly contend – regardless of Friday night's result against Hawthorn.

Football industry figures admit ranking which of these clubs is closest to again tasting the ultimate success is a complicated question, for it takes into account such areas as their current list, their youngsters emerging in the AFL and VFL, potential draft picks, coaching and strategy and, despite this being the age of ballooning football-department numbers, good fortune. Just ask Stephen Milne or Matthew Scarlett.

Some pundits had the Pies challenging for a flag this year. The Tigers were expected to be a top-six contender. That's now highly unlikely.

The Bombers, before a dozen players were suspended for an anti-doping breach, may have been in the contention mix – and could threaten next year.

So, who can the leap the quickest within the next five years and potentially raise the cup?

HOT PIES 

Veteran forward Travis Cloke appears on the slide but in Darcy Moore the Pies have a spearhead for the next decade. Star recruit Adam Treloar is elite, fellow onballer Jordan De Goey shapes as an elite prospect but the Pies have issues. Commentator Matthew Lloyd says he has a "real concern" about Brodie Grundy's ruck work, while they can be exposed in defensive 50.

However, a list strategy manager from another club said he was "confident" the Pies were the best-placed of four sides over the next five years, with the Tigers in the worst position.

Champion Data said in its pre-season prospectus the Pies were an "emerging juggernaut", and published an under-27 side featuring Jack Frost, Tom Langdon, Marley Williams, James Aish, Taylor Adams, Jamie Elliott and Alex Fasolo, who were all 25 or younger.

"From a list perspective, you would be really surprised on how young Collingwood's team is – I actually mean inexperienced and young. But medium to long-term, Collingwood's list is the best prepared – no doubt," the list manager said.

A rival club scout added: "Carlton are a longer-term look, but Collingwood have been very, very disappointing. More disappointing than Richmond. They have been flogged. They say they have a good list – I am not sure they have."

Mark Maclure, the former Carlton great-turned commentator on ABC and Fox Footy, nominated the Pies as his pick - but questions abound in the next couple of years.

"Collingwood have been overrated. They are a developing-only side, at best, and they have the CEO running out saying we should be pushing to top four. I go: 'You're off your head, you are crazy,' " Maclure said.

" 'Bucks' has had to suffer through that – but I am not certain about him, either. But I would say out of the four of them, Collingwood are better placed because they have gone younger."

Collingwood great Tony Shaw said the Pies and Bombers were equally positioned, although he had concerns the maturation of the Pies' youngsters could come when Scott Pendlebury (28), Dane Swan (32), Nathan Brown (27) and Ben Reid (27) are in their twilight or are gone.

BOMBS AWAY

The recontracted Cale Hooker, together with Dyson Heppell, Michael Hurley and Jobe Watson – the latter three are expected to return – are elite. In Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett and Orazio Fantastia, the Bombers have bullish young talent. Then there's likely to be the number one or number two draft pick this year and almost certainly two in the top 20.

"The Bombers have (Darcy) Parish, Aaron Francis, who hasn't played, Fantasia is going all right. If you throw 10 in with them, they might be pretty good next year," one scout said.

"Their time might be closer than the others if they want to go that way."

The talent set to return – and also to be drafted – by the Bombers is undeniable, but an unknown remains what impact the year off will have for the dozen who have been suspended.

"Essendon might come back quicker than you think, but I don't know we judge what sort of effect it has on players having a year off. I know if it was tennis ... there would be a fair impact getting back to the required level," the list manager said.

"While the young players aren't playing, they aren't developing. You don't get better by not playing."

Added Maclure: "They are delusional. They think by bringing all these blokes back they are going to go well – they didn't go well in the first place. They have missed a year's footy. I don't get it – why would they do that?"

Maclure's comments were reinforced by Champion Data, which declared over summer the Dons' "premiership window ... isn't anywhere near open just yet".

TIGER FURY

The Tigers have a batch of A-graders in Brett Deledio, Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin but depth issues emerge from there. The club is set to face a philosophical decision during its ongoing review – is a mini-rebuild in order, with top-up talent moved on and more time given to youth?

"They have to. They have too many list cloggers," Maclure said.

Brandon Ellis, Reece Conca, Ty Vickery and Ben Lennon shape as possible trade options, while there could be about 10 delistings, including Taylor Hunt, Troy Chaplin, Shaun Hampson, Andrew Moore and Liam McBean.

That process could also involve securing a top-five pick in this year's draft – based on current form.

Shaw has long said the Tigers' list was not good enough to claim a flag.

"I have been ridiculed by the Richmond people but I have always said the list was not good enough at the end. You can make finals but that means you are eighth, eighth and eighth, which is middle of the range," Shaw said.

"I think the coach (Damien Hardwick) has done a great job. He has got everything out of that group now ... but I don't think their kids coming through are superstars."

The club scout suggested the Tigers faced a searching couple of years and ranked them behind the Bombers, Pies and Blues.

"Richmond, although they are copping it a bit at the moment, when they have all their good players in, they have been the form side (in recent years). But from here, it's going to be difficult," he said.

BLUE DAWN

An unbalanced list could pose a similar problem for the Blues. By the time the young talent of Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering, Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay mature, with more elite draftees to follow this year, the likes of Marc Murphy (28), Bryce Gibbs (27) and Matthew Kreuzer (26) will be in their twilight years – or gone.

The Blues know they are starting from scratch but it's for this reason they could leap ahead of the Bombers and Tigers. The Pies had stripped their list after Buckley's first season of 2012 – a move the Blues only began last year and something the Tigers may now consider.

"They are a long way back but there is talent there. Jacob Weitering may already be their best player," a club scout said.

"But there's a lot of work to do on that list. So many holes. They need to find someone who can kick goals."

Maclure said "people underestimate" rookie Blues coach Brendon Bolton and his capacity to develop talent, with an influx of more youth expected in the next two years.

"He is a lifestyle coach, basically. That is what we have needed for some time. Once you get your lifestyle right, most things usually work," he said.

A bullish Maclure said the Blues could vault over the Tigers and Bombers soon.

What the Blues cannot afford is a repeat of their recruiting between 2007 and 2011 – players who now should be at the peak of their powers. But only 12 per cent of the 41-primary listed players from that time – Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer, Dennis Armfield, Michael Jamison and Simon White – remain. The Hawks, by comparison, still have 11 players from that time, of  whom nine have premiership medals.

SOBERING THOUGHT

Amid this debate, here is something to keep in mind. Jostling each other may be one thing. Attempting to overtake the current on-field powers and the emerging power lists of the Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney will be another.

WHO'S CLOSEST TO A FLAG?

Mark Maclure

Collingwood

Carlton

Essendon

Richmond

Tony Shaw

Essendon-Collingwood

Carlton

Richmond

Rival list manager

Collingwood

Essendon

Richmond

Carlton

Jon Pierik

Collingwood

Carlton

Essendon

Richmond

Last flag

Collingwood 2010

Essendon 2000

Carlton 1995

Richmond 1980