Well, that's the accusation in terms of the composition of the final eight, anyway, now locked away unless North Melbourne somehow manage to lose to Greater Western Sydney by something like 125 points and St Kilda beat Brisbane by a similar margin.

Clearly, that won't be happening, so we have our finalists. What we don't have is an order, and that is still a very moveable feast indeed. Let's take a look at the variables in the final round of home and away games.

Sydney will wrap up top spot or at worst second with a win over Richmond. Lose, and the Swans could still drop out of the top four entirely if Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS all win.

An Adelaide win against West Coast will almost certainly land the Crows a top-two spot and two home finals, provided Geelong don't make up a five-point percentage gap. Lose to the Eagles, and wins by Hawthorn, Geelong and GWS would tip Adelaide out of the top four.

Geelong, provided they beat Melbourne at home, look most likely to stay third and play an away qualifying final, though that can change if the Swans or Crows stumble. Yet the Cats, too, could miss the top four with a loss and wins by both GWS and Hawthorn.

Hawthorn, despite the protestations of gloom, will keep a double chance with a win against Collingwood, though the Hawks look likely to be headed to Sydney or Adelaide for a qualifying final. A loss to the Magpies, and they could finish as low as seventh.

GWS need to beat North Melbourne and hope any of the teams above them lose, for them to nab a top four spot. The Giants could also end up as low as seventh and face a knockout final on the road should they lose and the Western Bulldogs and West Coast win.

The Eagles face the toughest task of all the finalists this week: a road trip to Adelaide. The prize, at least, will be a home elimination final should they win, though a Hawthorn loss to Collingwood could see them sneak into fourth. Lose, and they'll be on the road again for a knockout final.

The Western Bulldogs, too, have a pre-finals road trip to Perth to play Fremantle. Win, and who doesn't against the hapless Dockers these days, and the Dogs might score a home elimination final should either West Coast or GWS also lose on the road. Lose, and they'll be travelling again a fortnight later to play either the Eagles or Giants.

It's North Melbourne which is the only one of the top eight with any degree of certainty this week. Win or lose against GWS, and the Roos will be playing away in an elimination final, though that could be against virtually anybody.

There's going to be plenty of people this week who might have tipped the Roos against the Giants on Saturday night had Melbourne kept their chances alive, but will now switch to GWS, the finals newbies with more tangible rewards to play for.

But on that score, Melbourne's loss to Carlton may prove instructive. It was another example, and there have been plenty over the years, of how teams with ostensibly little to play for can catch those who do on the hop.

It should give a roll call of final eight team coaches plenty of ammunition this week as they guard their players against any potential complacency.

There are four games in the final round with similar scenarios pitting a finalist with plenty to play for against a team whose season is already effectively over – Geelong's clash with Melbourne, Sydney against Richmond, Hawthorn versus Collingwood, and the Western Bulldogs up against Fremantle.

Food for thought? Well, the Demons did upset the Cats at home last year when they weren't as accomplished a team as they are now.

Richmond? The Tigers memorably beat Sydney at ANZ Stadium two years ago to make it to September. Unfortunately, this time the game is at the SCG, and they'll need to lift about 100 per cent on last weekend's effort against St Kilda, hands down one of the worst-standard games of the year.

Hawthorn have a new ruck and forward structure to contemplate courtesy of the injury to Jonathon Ceglar. And their opponents, Collingwood, have been pretty solid over the past month. They'll need to be, because they haven't beaten Hawthorn in their last eight attempts, their last victory the 2011 preliminary final.

Fremantle? Well, it is Matthew Pavlich's final game. And the Bulldogs haven't won in Perth since 2010.

Any of those underdogs get up, and it will be a significant upset, as well as throwing a finalist's plans into disarray. But this season, who would confidently tip the status quo. Perhaps the only surprise in 2016 would be if there was no surprise.

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