What needs to go right?

While they may not have finished on top of the ladder, the Hawks remain the team to beat as they chase their fifth-straight grand-final appearance, and a fourth-straight flag. This is a team that has overcome adversity in recent years – injuries to key personnel, Alastair Clarkson's illness and, last year, a preliminary final in Perth – yet has always been able to find a way to win. Their aura and ability to remain, as Wayne Carey says, "cool in a crisis", counts for plenty. They have been able to post another strong home-and-away season without Jarryd Roughead, who is fighting cancer, but will his absence as a key forward and big body at centre bounces finally take a toll? Jonathon Ceglar may not be a household name but, until injury intervened, he had been fulfilling the same important role David Hale had done through three flags, as a third option up forward who could spell Ben McEvoy in the ruck. Ryan Schoenmakers, Marc Pittonet or Jack Fitzpatrick must now step up. The Hawks will hope McEvoy (back) is fit to face the Hawks. If not, Matt Spangher could return.

What can't go wrong?

As is the case for all teams, they need to avoid more injuries. The Hawks' ability to maintain possession and chip the ball through opposition defensive set-ups remains strong but will this finally unravel? Veterans Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell and Shaun Burgoyne have been handed contract extensions but it's in September when that loss of half-a-step in speed or awareness is exposed. They need to hope that does not happen. Much has been made of how the Hawks are the worst contested-possession team in the league, a statistic that Clarkson bristles at, for it's not what his team's winning platform has been built upon. That may be the case, but it's an area they surely cannot afford to be thumped in, as was the case in the loss to the Eagles in Perth. That their scoring has dipped this season – their percentage has dipped from a peak of 158.4 last year to 118.6 – means possessions heading into attacking 50 are more precious than ever. They have slipped to mid-table in terms of overall disposals and into the bottom quartile for marks inside 50, having been top four in the latter for every season since 2011.

Key personnel

The Hawks are weaker because of the absence of Roughead and Ceglar, but Jack Gunston, Paul Puopolo, Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust and James Sicily have ensured an even scoring spread has been maintained. Mitchell (29.8 disposals) and Jordan Lewis (27) continue to find plenty of the ball, Burgoyne gets the job done when injected into the middle, while Rioli's pressure and moments of brilliance – just ask the Swans – can turn a contest in the blink of an eye. Josh Gibson remains the key defensive plank, with opponents keen to isolate him.

Wildcard

Rioli is a consistent threat but his moments of brilliance, whether that be through a long goal or tackle deep inside 50, provide that "x-factor" moment. Sicily, who has shown he thrives in the big moments, is ready to announce himself. Speedy pair Brad Hill, in his last season at the club, and Isaac Smith can deliver the searching runs needed to open up a contest.

History at venue

The Hawks have plenty of history at the MCG – just check out their trophy cabinet.

Clashes v other finalists

Round 1 v Geelong

Lost 12.14 (86) to 18.8 (116) MCG

Round 2 v West Coast 

Won 14.15 (99) to 7.11 (53) MCG

Round 3 v Western Bulldogs

Won 14.9 (93) to 13.12 (90) Etihad Stadium

Round 5 v Adelaide

Won 17.10 (112) to 17.7 (109) MCG

Round 6 v Greater Western Sydney

Lost 12.11 (83) to 24.14 (158) Showgrounds

Round 9 v Sydney 

Lost 7.13 (55) to 10.9 (69) MCG

Round 13 v North Melbourne

Won 14.9 (93) to 11.18 (84) Etihad Stadium

Round 17 v Sydney 

Won 11.9 (75) to 10.10 (70) SCG

Round 21 v North Melbourne

Won 14.12 (96) to 8.9 (57) MCG

Round 22 v West Coast 

Lost 10.7 (67) to 13.14 (92) Subiaco