The inauguration of Donald Trump as American president on Friday changes every certainty we thought we knew about the state of the world and the global economy.
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If Mr Trump stays true to his election promises, we could find that the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) will be torn up.
The TPP was the first concrete step towards realising the long-term vision of a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific and half of all global trade and over 70 per cent of Australia's trade flowing through this region, expanding and deepening Australia’s trade and investment relationships is seen as critical to Australia’s future economic growth and prosperity.
All that may be in jeopardy as Mr Trump considers his option.
It was striking to see Chinese President Xi Jinping not only attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday but offering a vigorous defense of free trade at in a speech that showed China’s desire to play a greater global role as Trump’s America turns inward.
In the first appearance by a Chinese leader at the annual meeting of political leaders, CEOs and bankers in the Swiss Alps, Xi also cautioned other countries against blindly pursuing their national interests, in an apparent reference to the "America first" policies of Donald Trump.
Xi compared protectionism to "locking oneself in a dark room" to protect yourself from danger, but in so doing, cutting off all "light and air".
"No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war,” he said.
Xi is right on all counts, though hypocritical seeing as many parts of the Chinese economy remain locked away from outsiders (not to mention, the lack of political freedoms in the country, with many people locked away in dark rooms for disagreeing with Xi and others).
Far more so than the United States, China is critical to Australia’s fortunes, and indeed to the fortunes of our region.
China is Australia's largest trading partner in imports and exports. Australia is China's sixth largest trading partner; it is China's fifth biggest supplier of imports and its tenth biggest customer for exports.
We must hope China remains open as America closes its doors. DB