Few things a football writer churns out have the capacity to embarrass them quite as much as a season preview. Trust me, I know.

Last year wasn't a great one for me on the prognostication front. So bad, in fact, I managed to leave both eventual grand finalists out of my forecast top eight. Yep. Really.

In my defence, the Western Bulldogs after 22 games were only three spots higher than I'd placed them. And before the finals, who seriously thought the seventh-placed Dogs, nursing a truckload of injuries and facing a road trip to Perth, could actually win the premiership?

But as much as a qualifier, that's a good example of just how difficult this tipping business has become. To adapt American industrialist Henry Ford, history, increasingly, is bunk.

So much so that, headed into the 2017 premiership season, there are only two teams I'm prepared to say categorically won't be playing finals: Brisbane and Carlton.

Some teams you can't discount (but I'm about to)

Before I run through my top eight, another qualifier ... we've had 17 seasons since the turn of the new millennium. In only one of those have there been fewer than two changes to the final eight. In 11, the top eight has changed by at least three teams. And if ever a year looked capable of tossing up a repeat, it's 2017.

That said, I'm sorry fans of North Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide, finalists all last year. It's nothing personal.

Admittedly, I'm not sure North Melbourne will fall quite as far as some are predicting. While there's certainly been a massive clearing of the decks, the Roos have plenty of promising talent still to have much of a go. I like their trade-ins, too, Nathan Hrovat a real talent up forward, ditto Marley Williams out of defence. I've got the Roos 11th. That's not necessarily outright failure. But nor is it a vote of confidence.

Harry Taylor playing forward for the Cats: Inspiration or desperation? Photo: Getty Images

Geelong worries me, even coming off a top four finish. Zach Tuohy is a good pick-up, I like the look of newcomer Tom Stewart, but Corey Enright remains a big loss defensively.

There's plenty of talls besides Tom Hawkins, but how reliable are Zac Smith and Rhys Stanley? Will Mark Blicavs be as effective with the abolition of third man up? And is Harry Taylor playing forward inspired, or a move borne of desperation?

In the midfield they have a crack duo - Dangerfield and Selwood. But Geelong to me seem to have lost much of the x-factor. The Cats will need Steve Motlop and Nakia Cockatoo both pulling out special seasons to help recapture it, and another level reached by Cam Guthrie, Mitch Duncan, Sam Menegola and Scott Selwood. And they're big asks.

Adelaide's firepower is the envy of most. The Crows have Rory Sloane and Scott Thompson in the midfield; their backline is solid indeed. But several players - Richard Douglas, David Mackay, Matt and Brad Crouch, Rory Atkins, perhaps even a forward thrown into the pivot in Charlie Cameron - are going to have to rise to another level.

So who makes the eight?

At the bottom of the top, I'm including three newbies (two precocious up-and-comers and one habitual tease) who weren't in the eight last year - and one who was.

A fit Jamie Elliott will add even more potential to a healthy Magpies attacking line-up. Photo: Getty Images.

Collingwood? I can see the eye rolls from here. But surely they are overdue a bit of luck on the injury front.

Importantly, the Pies have pumped another year's experience into a considerable army of younger players. Jordan De Goey, Brayden Maynard, Josh Smith and Tom Phillips are just a few who have shown good signs in pre-season.

Not everyone has been a fan of their top-ups from other clubs. But former Docker Chris Mayne and Giant Will Hoskin-Elliott could make a difference up forward, alongside a healthier Jamie Elliott and Alex Fasolo, enough support for the very promising Darcy Moore.

The defence still looks a little thin for height and strength. But there's no denying the class and depth of the Pies' midfield now. Daniel Wells would be merely the icing on the cake for the likes of Pendlebury, Treloar, Sidebottom, Adams, Greenwood, Crisp and so on. I give the Pies another chance.

If they don't make it this year, coach Nathan Buckley has conceded he's as good as gone. I might be in a bit of trouble, too, after going out on a limb for them once again.

New co-captain Jack Viney leads an imposing group of tough young Demons. Photo Getty Images

It's been coming a while for Melbourne. But I reckon they're ready, and not just because of an impressive JLT series. An already decent midfield bats deeper now with Jordan Lewis and Jake Melksham. Michael Hibberd offers more valuable defensive run.

Mostly, though, it's about a number of players looking ready for career-defining years. Christian Petracca is the most obvious. But throw in Jesse Hogan up forward. Christian Salem, Clayton Oliver. Their younger stars are tough, too. Think new co-captain Jack Viney and Angus Brayshaw. It's an imposing blend.

There's some enthusiasm out there for writing Hawthorn off. I don't share it. Of course Mitchell and Jordan Lewis are major losses. But Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O'Meara pretty handy replacements. Then there's a "recruit" called Jarryd Roughead who has a profound impact both up forward and on the ball when unleashed.

Yes, some players are going to have to go up a cog or two. But you don't lightly dismiss any team with names still like Rioli, Gunston, Burgoyne, Gibson, Birchall, Smith and Breust.

Like the Demons, St Kilda look ready. Perhaps more ready. The Saints were close enough to taste it last year. Now, in my view, they have the requisite midfield depth given the pick-up of Koby Stevens and Jack Steele to assist Steven, Armitage, Ross, Weller, Dunstan and co. Not to mention a more imposing-looking defence thanks to the arrival of Nathan Brown and return from suspension of Jake Carlisle. I think they may be a little more consistent than Melbourne.

Steele reinforced: The Saints now have the depth to stake a top eight claim. Photo: Getty Images

The top four

In the disappointment of that elimination final loss to the Bulldogs, it was easy to forget that West Coast won nine of 10 games in the lead-up. The Eagles' biggest weakness has been midfield depth. And they have done a lot to remedy that with the recruitment of Sam Mitchell, who should take an enormous load off Matt Priddis and Luke Shuey particularly.

The Western Bulldogs? Well, Luke Beveridge's coaching performance last year may well go down as close to the best of all time considering the catalogue of injuries suffered along the way.

New Bulldog Travis Cloke's got a point to prove. Getty Images

On paper, at least, they should be better again, particularly up forward, where a team that was only the 12th highest-scoring outfit in 2016 now boasts an All-Australian key forward in Travis Cloke keen to prove a sizeable point to Collingwood, and, back from suspension, Stewart Crameri.

We already know there's depth, evenness and a great coach. It's psychology which may prove the Bulldogs' biggest challenge trying to back up a premiership for the ages.

The runner-up

The juggernaut that is Greater Western Sydney is certainly going to take some stopping. No one beats the Giants for depth of talent. Still in the bottom half of the AFL in terms of age, GWS now boasts the fourth-most experienced squad in terms of average games per player.

Besides the glut of experienced youth, GWS have nailed all their experienced recruits, too, going back to Callan Ward, then Shane Mumford and last year, Steve Johnson. Perhaps Brett Deledio will prove a similarly inspired pick-up. But are they as dependable, week in, week out as the team I've tipped to win it? Not necessarily.

And that team is ... (drum roll)

They are such a perennial we tend to take them for granted. I certainly did this time last year.

But who is as reliable as Sydney? The Swans have missed finals just once in the past 14 years, and played in five grand finals over that period. They finished 2016 on top of the ladder, and despite some very untimely injuries and not a lot of luck, were still within one point of a grand final lead with just seven minutes left to play.

Up forward, they have not only Lance Franklin, whose pre-season has looked ominous, and Kurt Tippett, but potentially a revitalised Sam Reid, and now some decent ground-level goalkicking support in Tom Papley.

Can Lance Franklin break his premiership duck with the Swans? Photo: Getty Images

The midfield remains the AFL's most consistent. Tom Mitchell's ball-winning ability is a loss. But Isaac Heeney (once he recovers from glandular fever) might provide a touch more class in there. Ditto Callum Mills should he spend more time there.

And while Heath Grundy and Jarrad McVeigh aren't getting any younger, the reinforcements keep coming. Aliir Aliir in the key post, Zak Jones to provide run off half-back. Coach John Longmire has more flexibility than perhaps he's known at his disposal now.

And after two grand final losses in the space of three years, he and his list have motivation to spare. I have a hunch it might be third time lucky for this band of Swans.