Could Beau Mertens become the first apprentice jockey to win the Victorian riders' metropolitan premiership since Nick Ryan in the 2004-05 season?
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Only four - Ryan, Damien Oliver, Darren Gauci and Geoff Lane - have done so since racing resumed after World War II, so the challenge is considerable.
But with far more racing these days and trainers happier to put up claiming apprentices, don't bet against it, despite the youngster copping an eight-meeting suspension on Saturday after being disqualified in Caulfield's opening race.
Mertens, the son of well-known former jockey Peter, lost the first event on the card, despite crossing first for his master, Mick Kent, on the mare Quilate. Stewards upheld a protest that he drifted across the track impeding the run of narrow second placegetter Ma Jones, and reversed the placings.
But the unflappable Mertens didn't let the disappointment upset him.
He went out later in the afternoon and booted home another two winners for the powerful Lindsay Park operation of David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig.
He showed his skill in the saddle and tactical versatility when getting Boom Time across from a wider barrier to lead by the time the field had left the Caulfield straight and then dictate the pace to control the 2400-metre Robert Taranto Handicap from the front.
Then he produced the former Adelaide-trained mare Miss Gunpowder with perfect timing to run down long-time leader Boomwah close to home in the following 1200-metre sprint handicap.
That he is now teaming up with the Hayes/Dabernig operation is a testament to the high regard in which he is held by the champion trainer, who has also nurtured the career this year of another top apprentice in Regan Bayliss.
The latter, who rode out his claim earlier in the season and scored his first group one success for the stable aboard Redkirk Warrior in the Newmarket last month, is currently serving a lengthy suspension incurred in Sydney during the Championships.
Mertens, who can still claim 1.5 kilos in the city, has filled the gap with aplomb.
His two successes on Saturday have taken his total to 50 metropolitan winners for the season (from 295 rides) and he is now only four behind the pace-setting multiple champion Craig Williams, who has 54.
Mertens still has some 24 winners to ride in town before losing his claim, and his ability to reduce a horse's weight will ensure such a polished performer is in great demand during the winter months when the tracks soften and every kilo counts for more on the heavier ground.
Williams has spent much of the month riding interstate at the big Sydney carnival and is likely to be in demand during the Brisbane and Adelaide carnivals in May and June as well, so Mertens may never have a better chance of running down his senior rival.
Dwayne Dunn is seven behind on 43 winners, so the veteran can't be discounted, but it would look difficult for Ben Allen, on 39, to make up the ground from here in the riders premiership race.
Mertens will miss next Saturday's Caulfield meeting through the suspension incurred on Quilate, but will be back for the Anzac Day card at Flemington.
"I am now only four behind so I am getting close but I won't count my pennies too early," the young rider says. "There's still a few months left to go.
"I am not going to go the early crow. Whatever happens happens. If I can keep going the way I am going I will be close. It's a bit shattering to get suspended for a week, but I am sure I will bounce back."
He acknowledges the support he has been getting from the Hayes stable as a big factor in pushing his title claims.
"I am just putting in a bit of work for them, going to trials every Friday, doing a bit for them there and in the week I do a bit of track work for them whenever they need me. I went to Euroa (Hayes country Victorian property) a few weeks ago and did a couple of gallops for them.
"It's definitely worth doing the hard yards because they have the horses and they are quality too. When the big hoops can't get in there I will swoop in there and sneak a couple in."