With five Melbourne Cups to his name, the most successful owner in the race's history, Lloyd Williams, has forgotten more about what it takes to win the great race than most racing people have ever learned.
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So when he gives punters a steer into one of his horses, it's worth sitting up and paying attention.
Last year he was bullish about the prospects of the lightly-weighted Almandin who, he said, had beaten the handicapper and got into the Cup with a real winning weight.
Thus it proved when the German import, expertly ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, just got the better of the Irish galloper Heartbreak City and Brazilian 'Magic Man' Joao Moreira in a nail-biting finish with the third horse, Hartnell, a long way in arrears.
Almandin is back again this year, trying to become one of the few horses to repeat the performance. The last, of course, was the great Makybe Diva, who went one better and won three in a row, the first in 2003.
Williams rates the now eight-year-old as one of his best chances this time round, but he is also keen on the prospects of several of his other contenders as he bids to pull off what would be an unprecedented feat for an owner and land the cup trifecta.
Speaking on RSN on Monday morning, Williams gave an in-depth guide to the prospects of the horses carrying his navy blue and white colours, all of whom will be distinguished by carrying a different colour cap. It will be Almandin who wears the first choice outfit, navy blue with white armbands and a white cap.
He will be partnered by Frankie Dettori, the superstar Italian rider who has been based in England since his teens, and Williams says Almandin is a great chance to break Dettori's duck in the race.
"He's in very good order and he will be well suited to his jockey. Frankie is at the peak of his powers and he has had a great year. Almandin looks magnificent for a horse of his age and I am very happy with him.
"He is up in the weights and you need luck in running. I have known Frankie for a long time and he rode a magnificent race on Order of St George for me in the Arc (the world's top 2400 metre race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe) when he was third last year.
"I know him well and it would give me a great deal of pleasure to win it with him. You are dealing with the best staying jockey in the world and I think the horse is at his peak."
Still, Williams has several other strings to his bow, and he rates the Caulfield Cup third Johannes Vermeer, trained by Irish maestro Aidan O'Brien, and Rekindling, prepared by O'Brien's former jockey son Joseph, now in his second season as a trainer, as having very realistic winning prospects, too.
"Johannes Vermeer will get a great run from the barrier. He reminds me of Green Moon (Williams' 2012 winner). He can sprint, he has got a serious turn of foot and he is by Galileo; he (the stallion) can do anything."
Williams was adamant that the lightly-weighted Rekindling, a three-year-old to northern hemisphere time, is also in with a serious chance - if he has got over the effects of a hard season.
"He's been on the go since April but he is very well - he has a blood picture I would die for. "
Williams's confidence in Rekindling's chances has been boosted by the form of the younger horses in staying races against their elders in Europe this year.
The three year old Stradivarius won the 3200 metre Goodwood Cup, beating Big Orange (who carried top weight in last year's Melbourne Cup) while Desert Skyline, another three-year-old, won the 3600 metre Doncaster Cup, beating one of this year's Melbourne Cup hopes, Thomas Hobson. In addition the three-year-old filly Enable has carried all before her, winning the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Arc against the older horses this season.
The owner reckons his high class galloper Order of St George (the original Cup topweight but a non runner) could, given some ease in the ground, canter to victory in the race. He points out that Rekindling got to within four and three quarter lengths of Order of St George in the Irish St Leger and as a young horse comes into the Cup with a huge weight advantage having to carry only 51.5 kilos.
Williams also counselled caution against dismissing the chances of another former Coolmore stayer in Bondi Beach, who will be fronting up for his third Cup attempt.
"He has got a much better chance than a fluker's hope. He looks magnificent this morning," Williams said of the $61 chance.
