Graham Arnold's side is in such form that it is hard to see any of their pursuers getting close in the race for the premiers' plate.

Victorian fans got their chance to assess the relative merits of the top four teams when they all played at AAMI Park within 24 hours of each other in the last round: third-placed Melbourne City hosted the second-placed Newcastle Jets, while fourth-placed Victory tried to cut down the high-flying Sky Blues.

In finals, anything is possible and every team has a puncher's chance of bloodying their opponents' nose in a one-off contest.

But history tells us that it is almost impossible to win the A-League grand final from outside the top two, and very difficult to win it if you are not hosting. All of which stacks the odds in Sydney's favour, even ignoring their current clear on-pitch superiority.

Victory haven't beaten Sydney for the past two years and though Kevin Muscat's team was good for the first 20-25 minutes against the champions, once Sydney got into the groove there was only going to be one winner.

Sydney slowly suffocated Victory and even though they fell behind to a Besart Berisha penalty they managed to score three times to emphasise their superiority.

Victory went close against Sydney in the grand final last year, physically imposing themselves and drawing 1-1 to force a penalty shoot-out. Nine months later they tried the same thing, and were beaten 3-1 in front of their own fans.

That suggests Victory have gone backwards, or Sydney have improved. It's probably a mixture of the two.

City and the Jets produced a terrific contest but for them, and Victory, the most realistic target this season will be to snare a second-place finish.

That will virtually assure them of an entry to the Asian Champions League group phase in 2019 and give them the chance of hosting the grand final if Sydney slip up unexpectedly.

The Jets are in pole position, four points clear of City (who have 30 points) with Victory back on 26. Crucially, Ernie Merrick's men also have a goal difference of plus 17, which could be worth a point on its own if things get tight in the final weeks of the campaign.

City enjoyed the bulk of possession and on every analysis metric (possession, duels won on the ground and in the air, interceptions and corners) Warren Joyce's men came out on top. Except on the scoreboard, which was tied at 2-2.

And while Victory will miss Mark Milligan's experience and drive, multiply that by a factor of three for City when assessing the loss of Ross McCormack.

Now the on-loan striker has had to return to Aston Villa, City will have to improvise and hope that Dario Vidosic can step up and become a regular goalscorer in his absence. Going into this game McCormack's 14 goals in 14 games had been more than half of City's then total of 26.

The club is hoping Bruno Fornaroli comes back from injury next month but he is unlikely to be match fit until finals time.

Joyce believes his team has shown enough in its two games against Sydney to be a chance of beating them when the stakes are high. Their encounter at AAMI Park on February 10 will tell us whether Joyce's belief is based on reason or optimism.

At this stage the Jets, with key striker Roy O'Donovan and playmaker Ronny Vargas to come back into the mix, look the best bet for that second spot. They lost narrowly (2-1) to Sydney the first time they met this season and then drew 2-2, both games in Sydney. The encounter between the two on March 3 could prove pivotal for the Jets' aspirations.