Tropical cyclones are complex and unpredictable beasts so we cannot be sure even with the best science where they will go.
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However the best estimate for the current track of Tropical Cyclone Trevor - which has already caused much destruction in the Coen and Lockhart River areas of Cape York - is that it will make its second landfall in the Northern Territory once it moves off the Gulf of Carpentaria.
At the time of writing the latest advice from the Bureau of Meteorology issued at 1.30pm on Thursday the cyclone is over water estimated to be 75 kilometres southwest of Weipa and 540 kilometres east of Alyangula on Groote Eylandt in the Northern Territory.
It had reached Category 3 when it made initial landfall on Cape York but has been downgraded to Category 1 as I wrote.
However that situation won't last long on the warm waters of the Gulf.
TC Trevor was expected to rapidly intensify to a category 3 cyclone by Thursday evening and then will intensify further as it adopts a more general west-southwest movement across the Gulf of Carpentaria.
It is likely to cross the Northern Territory coast during Saturday as a category 4 severe tropical cyclone.
That means very destructive winds with gusts to 275 km/h near the cyclone centre as it approaches and crosses the coast.
Coastal residents between Groote Eylandt and the NT/Qld border are specifically warned of a very dangerous storm tide as the cyclone centre approaches the coast.
Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding during Friday evening and Saturday.
It is too dangerous to try to wait out the cyclone so residents along the eastern edge of the NT including Borroloola and Nhulunbuy are being evacuated with up to 5000 people on the move by road and by air.
The NT Government has confirmed Katherine and Darwin are being considered for evacuees as a reception, registration and transit point "with further accommodation arrangements being explored".
The Top End needs the rain after a dry wet season but it could be a dangerous few days ahead - Derek Barry