The Wentworth federal by-election caused by the resignation of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull appears to have resulted in a win for independent candidate Kerryn Phelps, despite a late swing in postal votes to the Liberal candidate.
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The result in what should have been a safe seat is a disaster for the current government and will mean prime minister Scott Morrison now has to rule with a minority government.
Despite what politicians of both major parties will tell you minority government is not the end of the world and does not automatically lead to “chaos” (Australian federal politics in recent years is quite capable of creating chaos regardless of the size of the majority).
European parliaments routinely govern successfully despite ruling parties not having a majority and the two times Australia has previously had it, both survived for several years (John Curtin from 1941 and Julia Gillard from 2010).
Assuming Dr Phelps is elected, the Coalition will exactly half the house of representatives – 75 out of 150 seats. That’s still well ahead of Labor on 69.
The other six seats will now be held by independents Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie and Dr Phelps, plus Adam Bandt of the Australian Greens, Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance and Bob Katter from Katter’s Australian Party.
Each now becomes critical to the government. This hands the crossbenchers considerable negotiating power.
Of course Mr Katter has experience of this situation having been in parliament during the 2010-2013 minority government.
In that election Mr Katter ruled himself out of power negotiations by supporting Tony Abbott rather than Ms Gillard and as a result his seat of Kennedy did not get the same favourable treatment as New England (then held by independent Tony Windsor) and Lyne (Rob Oakeshott).
Mr Katter has apparently given a list of demands to the current government though reading those demands (such as Hell’s Gate, including ComSuper in the banking Royal Commission and a list of defence issues) in Thursday’s Townsville Bulletin and I have asked his office why none appear to be directly related to North West Queensland – Derek Barry