The Bureau of Meteorology has moved from 'La Nina WATCH' to 'La Nina ALERT' with the likelihood of La Nina returning this spring increasing to around three times the normal risk.

The Bureau's three-month climate outlook shows a high chance of above average rainfall for Queensland, New South Wales and the Northern Territory between September and November 2022.

With an early wet season onset of 80 per cent for Queensland and half of the NT having a 60 to 65 per cent chance.

"An earlier than normal northern rainfall onset for the 2022-23 season is likely across Queensland and most of the NT, while some areas of the Pilbara and southern Kimberley in WA are likely to have a later than usual onset," the Bureau said.

"La Nina refers to changes in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with waters in the eastern Pacific being cooler than normal, and waters in the western tropical Pacific being warmer than normal. Trade winds strengthen, increasing the water moisture in the air, which usually brings rainfall to eastern and central Australia and a wetter start to the northern wet season.

"When La Nina criteria have been met in the past, a La Nina event has developed around 70 per cent of the time."

There are concerns for central and eastern parts of New South Wales, with wet soils, high rivers, full dams and an early onset of rain; the elevated flood risk remains.

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